Cubs Look to Break Slump in Colorado as Breaking Balls Derail Bats

The Chicago Cubs open a six-game road trip Monday night in Denver, facing a Colorado Rockies team with the worst record in baseball. For Iowa fans who have watched the Cubs spiral since early May, this series against the 24-42 Rockies represents a critical opportunity to get back on track.

Game Info

• Who: Chicago Cubs (34-32) vs. Colorado Rockies (24-42)
• Where: Coors Field, Denver, CO
• When: 7:40 PM CT
• Watch: Marquee Sports Network
• Listen: 104.3 The Score

Cubs Lineup

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
2. Moises Ballesteros, DH
3. Michael Busch, 1B
4. Alex Bregman, 3B
5. Ian Happ, LF
6. Seiya Suzuki, RF
7. Nico Hoerner, 2B
8. Miguel Amaya, C
9. Dansby Swanson, SS

Breaking Balls Breaking Bats

The Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10 games and just 5-15 in their last 20. They haven't won a series since the first week of May. Since May 8th, the day after their sweep of the Reds, the Cubs rank 24th in fWAR (2.2), 29th in slugging (.333), and only the Padres have scored fewer runs (95) during that span.

A major factor in the slump is the historic amount of breaking balls the Cubs are seeing this season. Opposing pitchers have figured out that this lineup struggles mightily against off-speed stuff, and they're exploiting it ruthlessly.

Bregman's Pricey Struggles

Alex Bregman, the $175 million third baseman, is having the worst season of his career with a .669 OPS worth 1.0 fWAR. The struggles are directly linked to breaking balls. Bregman is seeing nearly 10% more breaking pitches this year (39.8%) compared to last season, and he's batting just .147 against breaking balls in the heart of the zone.

Bregman remains a patient hitter, walking at a solid 9.8% clip. But his passive approach is allowing pitchers to throw more breaking balls early in counts for strikes. With runners in scoring position, Bregman has just one extra-base hit all year and is batting .173. He needs to start hitting breaking balls, or he'll only see more of them in key moments.

Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki have also been terrible against breaking balls this season, compounding the problem throughout the lineup.

Roster Moves Feature Iowa Connection

The Cubs made several roster moves Monday that hit close to home for Iowa fans. Matt Shaw was reinstated from the injured list, and outfielder Kevin Alcantara was optioned back to Triple-A Iowa. Alcantara's return to Des Moines gives Iowa Cubs fans a chance to watch one of the organization's top prospects develop further.

On the pitching side, Jameson Taillon was placed on the 15-day IL with a left hamstring strain. Ethan Roberts has been recalled to take his place. Additionally, Trent Thornton was placed on the paternity list, prompting the recall of Tyler Ferguson.

Rockies Lineup

1. Jake McCarthy, LF
2. Willi Castro, 2B
3. TJ Rumfield, 1B
4. Hunter Goodman, C
5. Troy Johnston, RF
6. Ezequiel Tovar, SS
7. Cole Carrigg, CF
8. Kyle Karros, 3B
9. Edouard Julien, DH

Colorado has been on the wrong end of several blowouts recently, losing 12-4 to the Brewers on Sunday, 11-4 to the Angels earlier in the week, and suffering a 19-6 drubbing by the Giants on May 31st. Catcher Hunter Goodman is having an excellent season with 17 home runs and an .829 OPS. The Cubs will miss Mickey Moniak, who is having a resurgent year but landed on the 10-day IL with ankle tendinitis.

Former Cub Willi Castro has found a home in Colorado as a switch-hitting utility player, playing six different positions and posting 0.5 WAR despite a .703 OPS.

On the Mound

Colin Rea, RHP (Cubs)

Rea got a no-decision in his last start against the Athletics, going 5.1 innings while allowing 2 earned runs and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts. The veteran righty has a 4.59 ERA and hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in his last four starts.

Rea hasn't pitched in Colorado since 2024, when he threw 7 shutout innings on 97 pitches for the win. Still, pitching in Denver carries risks. Rea has a tendency to allow home runs, and his walk rate has increased from 2.49 to 3.06 this year. His HR/FB rate is also up 2% to 12.3%. That combination could spell trouble at Coors Field.

However, the Rockies lack power, ranking 25th in home runs with just 61 on the season. Only the White Sox, Reds, and Angels strike out more than Colorado. Rea has been solid and provided crucial innings for a battered pitching staff.

Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP (Rockies)

The 36-year-old Sugano has put together a string of solid starts, allowing 3 runs or less in his last 4 outings. He's coming off his strongest start of the year against the Angels (5 IP, 2 ER, 5K). Sugano leans heavily on his fastball and split-finger combo with a sinker mixed in, though he has 7 total pitches.

His put-away pitch is the split-finger, with opponents batting just .140 against it. But his sinker and slider have been crushed, with all three pitches carrying opponent slugging percentages above .500. His 3.98 ERA is solid, but for a pitcher who doesn't strike out many batters (5.12 K/9) and doesn't get ground balls at 38.3%, he feels overdue to give up more home runs than the 11 he's allowed so far.

The Cubs will look to change that tonight. After weeks of struggling against breaking balls, facing a pitcher with hittable fastballs could be exactly what this lineup needs to wake up.